Ethiopia-Eritrea tensions over Red Sea port have turned the Tigray peace deal into a political weapon

The large-scale war between the Ethiopian federal government and Tigray regional government forces ended in November 2022 with the signing of the Pretoria Agreement .

The two sides agreed that the Tigrayan forces would disarm, and that foreign forces and other troops outside the federal army would withdraw from Tigray.

They also agreed to restore constitutional order in Tigray and resolve disputes over contested areas in accordance with the constitution.

I study armed conflict, governance and political communication in Ethiopia.

I recently analysed the Pretoria Agreement and its implementation.

I examined official statements from Ethiopian, Eritrean and Tigrayan authorities, reports by international organisations and conflict monitors, and news reports published between November 2022 and June 2026.

This enabled me to trace how disputes over disarmament, territory and political representation became connected to the rivalry between landlocked Ethiopia and Eritrea over access to the Red Sea.

I found that while the Pretoria Agreement remains accepted by the Ethiopian federal government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), its main commitments have been applied selectively.

The peace agreement has formally survived, but the conflict it was meant to end continues in other forms.

I call this conflict consolidation.

Large-scale fighting stopped, federal services resumed, and an interim regional administration was established.

But Western Tigray has not been returned to Tigrayan administration, foreign and non-federal forces have not fully withdrawn, and Tigray has not been fully reintegrated into federal politics.

Disarmament remains incomplete, and displacement, political exclusion and local fighting continue.

At the centre of it all are tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea, which have been sharpened by Ethiopia’s pursuit of access to the Red Sea.