Coalition retains clear lead in Victorian Resolve poll, while federal polls are mixed

Two and a half months before the November 28 Victorian state election, a Resolve poll has the Coalition retaining a clear lead over Labor.

Labor is likely to lose the election, but it’s unclear whether the Coalition will be able to govern in majority or need support from One Nation.

This week’s federal polls were mixed, with Resolve having the combined One Nation and Coalition primary vote up two points to 51%, while it was down 1.5 point to 46.5% in Morgan.

Morgan had the Greens up 1.5 points to a record high 16%, but they were down one point in Resolve to 11%.

Labor gained a seat at an NT byelection and there are final results from the Western Australian Secret Harbour byelection.

Victorian Resolve poll The Victorian state election is on November 28.

A Resolve poll for The Age, conducted September 6–12 from a sample of 1,000, gave the Coalition 28% of the primary vote (up one since the mid-August Resolve poll), Labor 25% (steady), One Nation 23% (steady), the Greens 12% (steady), independents 8% (up one) and others 5% (down one).

No two-party estimate was provided.

In August the Coalition led Labor by 53–47, and I am assuming this was still the case given the lack of change on primary votes.

This graph will follow Victorian polls in the lead-up to the election.

It starts with the polls in late July to early August, when Ben Carroll replaced Jacinta Allan as Labor leader and premier.

Labor’s two-party share and the midpoint fieldwork date for the polls are shown.

Resolve is the only pollster that has conducted a second poll since July.

When pollsters conduct multiple polls, there will be lines connecting polls by the same pollster.