Russia is cutting off Ukraine’s grain exports again, threatening a critical harvest and global food security

While the world’s attention is fixated on the US blockade of Iranian ports and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Russia has been subjecting Ukraine to a blockade of its own in the Black Sea, imperilling Ukraine’s summer grain harvest.

Ukraine is the world’s largest exporter of sunflower seeds and sunflower oil (50% of the global supply), the third-largest exporter of barley (18%), the fourth-largest for corn (16%), and the fifth-largest for wheat (12%).

Russian forces have struck at least 50 Ukrainian cargo ships since June, killing more than 30 civilians.

This included a strike on a ship off the coast of Odesa on July 19, which killed ten people onboard .

After this attack, commercial ships stopped travelling to Ukrainian seaports.

Ukraine has retaliated with its own attacks on Russia’s Black Sea ports, including one this week on two major grain terminals in the city of Novorossiysk , which is home to Russia’s Black Sea naval fleet.

Early Friday, Reuters reported that Ukraine has offered Russia a deal to halt attacks on civilian targets in the Black Sea, as concerns for global grain supplies begin to mount.

Blow to Ukrainian farmers More than 90% of Ukraine’s agricultural products are exported via Black Sea ports.

The blockade of Ukraine’s ports has already been devastating for the country’s farmers.

According to one economist, the blockade could cost the country around 1–1.5% of its gross domestic product (GDP) by the end of the year.

Ukraine expects a grain harvest of about 60 million tonnes this year .

But Agriculture Minister Taras Vysotsky said the grain export forecast will only be around 38-40 million tonnes for the 2026–27 fiscal year, a 12% drop from previous estimates.

The delays in exports could cause a domino effect.

Once this year’s harvest is completed in the next few weeks, it will be impossible to find enough storage facilities for the crops.