Politics with Michelle Grattan: why Victoria’s unpredictable election matters nationally

There are just seven weeks to go before the Victorian election on November 28.

Labor is trying to beat the odds to do something it’s never achieved in the state before: after 12 years in power, it’s trying to win its fourth straight term.

But was Labor’s third change of premier this term – from Jacinta Allan to Ben Carroll in July – too late to make any difference? On today’s special election podcast, we’re joined by the Victorian premier, as well as Opposition Leader Jess Wilson and One Nation’s state deputy leader, Colleen Harkin.

The result is being closely watched around Australia, particularly as a test of One Nation’s strength.

The election result remains surprisingly unpredictable, as Tony Barry – a former senior Liberal staffer turned director of polling and political consultancy firm Redbridge – explains.

Why it’s still too close to call Barry said “there is a massive mood for change in Victoria”, with about 75% of Victorians saying the state is heading in the wrong direction.

Even after the leadership change from Allan to Carroll, Barry said there’s been no lift on Labor’s vote.

On a vote share basis, we have not picked up any improvement in Labor’s vote.

That’s not to say that might [not] improve over the next seven weeks.

But these decisions are always a risk versus reward proposition.

Jacinta Allan’s numbers were terminal.

She was in the net –42 on personal favourability.

To give you a sense of how bad that is, Donald Trump is net –59 in Australia […] Net –42 was catastrophic. […] I get the sense in focus groups that they’ve just moved on from the Labor party.

It’s all too little, too late.