Are Z.ai and MiniMax heading down opposite financial paths months after Hong Kong IPOs?

Post-earnings results suggest an emerging divide as differing revenue growth and model capabilities may shape their market standing, analysts say

When two of China’s leading AI pioneers went public in Hong Kong in January, they pitched investors on a shared promise: capturing the explosive demand for artificial intelligence at home and abroad. Their first-half earnings, however, suggest that narrative could be splintering into two different trajectories.

Z.ai on Monday reported a nearly 400 per cent year-on-year surge in first-half revenue to 953.9 million yuan (US$142 million). By contrast, MiniMax’s revenue grew 283 per cent to US$116.6 million, according to its financial report released last week.

The commercial gap appeared even wider when measured by annual recurring revenue (ARR), a metric used by software companies to project 12-month revenue based on current monthly subscriptions.

Z.ai co-founder and chief scientist Tang Jie said during an earnings call that the company’s ARR had reached US$1.6 billion based on August’s results. MiniMax founder and CEO Yan Junjie, meanwhile, said its ARR had reached US$800 million in August – half that of Z.ai.

However, Yan later acknowledged in a private post-earnings call that MiniMax had calculated the figure by taking revenue from a single week in August and multiplying it by 52, according to a person familiar with the matter.