Israel’s strategic predicaments

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After Hamas’s October 7, 2023 attack in Israel, in which about 1,200 people were killed, the Jewish nation launched an immediate retaliatory war on Gaza. Its leaders vowed to continue to fight until Hamas was “obliterated”. The war soon spread into Lebanon as Hezbollah fired rockets into Israel-occupied Sheba Farms. In Syria, Israel carried out thousands of air strikes, targeting Syrian troops, Hezbollah positions and Iranian military officers. Hamas was pushed to the southern slice of Gaza. Hezbollah’s leadership, including its charismatic Secretary- General Hassan Nasrallah, was assassinated. In Syria, the Iran-aligned regime of President Bashar al-Assad collapsed in December 2024. Israel appeared to be winning the mini-regional war it was fighting. Many argued that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was “reshaping the Middle East” (West Asia) by force.

The tactical gains probably pushed Israel to take bigger risks. In June 2025, it started air strikes on Iran aimed at destroying Iran’s nuclear facilities. The U.S. joined the war to carry out a one-off attack on Iranian facilities and then backed off, claiming that its strikes had “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear facilities. The war ended in a ceasefire on the 12th day. But the conflict was not over.

On February 28, 2026, the U.S. and Israel launched another war on Iran . This time, they had four clear objectives: destroy Iran’s nuclear programme; dismantle Iran’s missile programme; prevent Iran from supporting its non-state allies such as Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis and Hashad; and bring down regime change in Tehran. Regime change was the central objective as all the other three were linked to it. Six months later, none of these objectives has been met. Not just that. Iran has added a new problem by shutting down the Strait of Hormuz, and cancelled all direct negotiations with the U.S. Israel and the U.S. assassinated Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on February 28, but his son, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, is now in power. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Iran’s powerful, ideologically-rooted paramilitary force, has emerged the most powerful branch of the state during the war. The U.S. is now fighting an economic war with Iran to force Tehran to rejoin talks and discuss the opening of the Hormuz Strait, while the nuclear programme, the core issue, has been pushed away from the ambit of prospective diplomacy. While the U.S. is dealing with Iran, Israel is watching anxiously from the margins.

Israel wanted to reshape West Asia by force. Regional order changes when balance of power and the distribution of power change. West Asia has witnessed changes in recent years, but not according to Israel’s plans. The war against Iran remains inconclusive and the Islamic Republic is far from collapsing. The nuclear issue remains unresolved. Hamas has been set back, but not dismantled. Hezbollah is still fighting from southern Lebanon and Beirut.