Anthropic IPO valuation hinges on $190-200 billion 2028 revenue forecast, sources say

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Anthropic did not immediately respond to a request for comment [File] | Photo Credit: REUTERS

As Anthropic prepares for what ​could be one of the biggest IPOs on record, Wall Street is looking further into the future than it commonly does to put a price on the ‌AI company, valuing it based on how much revenue it could generate two years from now.

Anthropic is projecting ​2028 revenue of roughly $190 billion to $200 billion, according to two people familiar with the company’s financials, a figure that has ⁠not previously been reported. The projection dwarfs the $47 billion revenue “run rate,” reflecting the firm’s current pace of business, that the company publicized as recently as May, and shows the scale of growth investors are being asked to underwrite.

Bankers and investors are using enterprise value-to-revenue multiples based on forecasts, four sources said.

Using revenue multiples ‌is common for high-growth software companies that have yet to establish a mature profit profile.

But looking two years ahead is less typical, reflecting the speed at which Anthropic’s business is expanding and the challenges of setting benchmarks for a company still ‌spending heavily to build out its AI infrastructure, the people said.

The pace of spending on AI investment has been responsible for pullbacks ‌in ⁠many of the most popular tech stocks in recent months, including some of the firms viewed as comparable ⁠to Anthropic.

There have been precedents among some of the fastest-growing companies that hit the market recently. Backers of Cerebras Systems cited 2028 revenue expectations in the runup to the firm’s IPO this year, and SpaceX projections extended as far as 2029 before the company went public at a record valuation in June, the people said.

The approach reflects the difficulty of ​valuing an AI company whose margins are still being pressured ‌by enormous spending on computing power, model training and hiring. Investors are betting that as Anthropic grows, revenue will rise faster than the costs required to support that growth, allowing margins to expand.

Cloud infrastructure company Cloudflare, enterprise software company Palantir and Elon Musk’s SpaceX are among the public companies being considered as reference points for Anthropic’s valuation ahead of ‌the company’s analyst day, the people said.

Public-market comparables are a crucial part of the IPO valuation process, giving investors a benchmark ​for how companies seen as having similar growth profiles and business models are valued. The peer group can also help determine which revenue or earnings multiples should be applied to a company’s financial forecasts.

Palantir is valued at 53 times ⁠this year’s expected revenue, making it one of Wall Street’s priciest stocks. SpaceX and Cloudflare both trade at 41.6 times expected 2026 revenue, LSEG data show.

Each of the companies offers a different lens on Anthropic. Palantir has become a reference point for investors valuing businesses with rapid growth and exposure ‌to AI.