Here's the projected Social Security COLA for 2027, according to AARP

Stubbornly hot inflation in August could push up the 2027 cost-of-living adjustment for Social Security recipients, according to a new estimate from AARP.

The 2027 COLA is now projected at 3.6%, based on the August Consumer Price Index figures released on Wednesday, according to the advocacy group. AARP had forecast a 3.5% increase a month ago.

Other groups are forecasting a slightly lower COLA, with the Senior Citizens League, an advocacy group for older Americans, projecting a 3.5% adjustment, down from its prior estimate of 3.6%.

A benefit increase of 3.6% would represent the biggest annual adjustment in Social Security payments since 2023. The program's more than 70 million recipients rely on the annual cost-of-living adjustment to ensure their benefits keep up with inflation, although some critics say the measure has failed to offset the price pressures facing older Americans and people with disabilities, including rising healthcare costs.

"No matter if the COLA announcement comes in slightly higher or slightly lower than our prediction, seniors will probably end up disappointed in the long run," said Shannon Benton, executive director of the Senior Citizens League, in a statement. "The reality is that older Americans allocate their budgets differently than people still in the workforce, so inflation hits them differently."

The average retired worker received $2,071 a month in Social Security benefits as of January, according to the Social Security Administration. That means a 3.6% COLA would increase the average monthly benefit by about $75, raising it to roughly $2,146 a month at the start of 2027.

The official COLA won't be announced until next month, when the Social Security Administration will calculate next year's inflation adjustment based on the July, August and September inflation data.

The September CPI report will be released on Oct. 14, with the Social Security Administration set to announce the 2027 COLA the same day.

Inflation remained elevated in August, with consumer prices rising 3.4% from a year ago. But that was slightly higher than economists had expected as rising fuel costs kept prices elevated.

Still, the August CPI report doesn't capture this month's surge in energy prices, with diesel topping $6 a gallon this week , a record high, and gasoline also inching higher.

Economists are concerned that the rise in diesel, which powers the trucks and railroads that transport goods around the U.S., could trickle through the economy as businesses hike prices to offset their higher energy costs.

Seniors, in the meantime, can feel that their COLA isn't keeping up with current inflation, experts say. For instance, the 2026 COLA, which went into effect in January's benefit payments, was set at 2.8%. Yet inflation has come in above that rate for every month in 2026 except January and February.

"The COLA only happening once a year puts life on hold for a lot of seniors. When prices rise, they don't rise next January when your benefit check goes up," Benton said.