Race to choose next UNSG remains unresolved

The race to choose the next United Nations Secretary-General remains unresolved after five rounds of informal voting, with front-runner Rebeca Grynspan yet to secure decisive backing.

International Crisis Group analyst Daniel Forti says the next round could expose opposition from veto-holding powers, and continued divisions could open the door to a late entrant.

With 7 candidates still in the race after the withdrawal of Chile’s Michelle Bachelet last month and after five straw polls in the Security Council, a clear front runner has yet to emerge.

Forti says, “Rebeca Grynspan, the former head of the UN trade agency, has maintained a slim but noticeable separation from the other candidates.

But clearly, she has not separated herself enough from the pack to leave council members and the wider UN membership certain that she will be the next Secretary General.

We are getting to a stage in the process where the council will need to get more clarity soon on who they can agree upon, whether that is Grynspan, one of the other six candidates currently in the race, or to encourage other individuals who have been rumoured on the sidelines but not formally declared, to come into the process.” The latest October 7th Straw Poll retains Rebecca Grynspan in the lead with nine encourage votes down from 10 in the previous poll with six discourage votes; Argentina’s Rafael Grossi with six encourages and seven discourages; Guyana’s Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett placed third in the latest poll – 5 encourages to her previous 8, but with 9 discourage votes up from 6 in the previous poll.

Senegal’s Macky Sall, Ecuador’s Maria Fernanda Espinosa, Uganda’s Olara Otunnu and Ecuador’s Ivonne Baki make up the bottom half in the current standings and appear long shots at this stage.

The sense is that some of the permanent members in particular, who are really essential into figuring out this compromise in the Council, have shown that they may like some of the candidates, most notably Rebecca Greenspan, but they aren’t in love with any of them.

And that is a particularly worrying feature now that we are really ten months into this wider campaign process and three months into the real meat of the selection.

In recent SG selection processes for Ban Ki-Moon and Antonio Guterres, the council was able to come to a consensus around this part of the calendar.

So, the fact that we are not necessarily closer to the council coalescing around Rebeca Grynspan or other candidates is a reflection of the state of geopolitical contestation today.

The Security Council expected to move to colour coded ballots in the next straw poll which would give a clear indication of potential vetoes of any candidacy from any of the permanent five members, as Forti explains.