ANALYSIS: Five signs the ANC has given up on Joburg

{JSON.stringify(article.attachments[0], null, 2)} --> The data reveal that most ANC voters have already chosen to stay home on 4 November.

In the past four days, Johannesburg executive mayor Dada Morero swore at residents angered by days-long, ongoing power cuts in Soweto; and he failed to open public pools today – a rare form of recreation in many townships. The pools are not ready and may be opened on 1 October, said the MMC for Community Development Thapelo Amad, a short-lived Al Jama-ah mayor in the city, let go for off-book meetings with unknown financiers.

Johannesburg is governed by a populist coalition led by the ANC with the EFF, PA, IFP and other micro-parties like Al Jama-ah. The coalition has run the city into the ground, and the ANC has given up, even on a last-mile race.

Johannesburg is the key battleground of the 4 November election. Yet the ANC has not identified a mayoral candidate to rally its troops behind and to carry the mantle of an electoral battle.

It is running the race as a primary with three candidates: veteran leader Reverend Frank Chikane, the regional chairperson Loyiso Masuku and the incumbent Morero. In these images released by the party’s region, only Masuku and Chikane pitched for what was meant to be a show of unity.

Morero was in the dog box for telling Tshepisong, Soweto residents, “O bua masepa” (You’re talking shit), when they suggested corruption may be to blame for at least some of their chronic power issues.

The party has no strategy to win back support in Johannesburg, and its campaign photos suggest it is doing house visits and handing out T-shirts. This may have worked in the past, but won’t work this time around.

There are 2.418 million registered voters in Joburg who make up 35.8% of total registered voters in Gauteng – this is the city where the ANC’s outcome in the province will be measured.

In Gauteng, there are 6.751 million registered voters out of a total possible eligible voting pool of 11 million. Even at a high turnout of 58%, you can see that most voters have already chosen to stay home. These are, in the main, possible ANC voters. Opposition voters are more motivated to both register and vote.

Gareth van Onselen’s blog, Inside Politics , shows that there is a strong correlation between registration, turnout and results for both the ANC and opposition DA.

“In blunt terms: DA voters generally turn out in local elections, ANC voters generally do not. As a result, the DA vote inflates, and the ANC vote deflates, compared with national elections.

“The ANC’s decline in Johannesburg has been catastrophic. From the dizzying heights of 68.6% in 2004, it has systematically lost support, falling below 50% for the first time in 2016, and then, all the way down to 31.9% in 2024. A decline of 36.7 percentage points.