New report on climate ‘overshoot’: what it means for Africa and how faster action can limit the damage

Climate change has already doubled the world’s heatwaves between 2024 and 2025 and brought more severe droughts, floods and water shortages to Africa.

These changes are damaging crops, homes, infrastructure and ecosystems, and placing growing pressure on people’s health and livelihoods.

On 2 September 2026, the United Nations Environment Programme released a report called Limiting Overshoot .

The overshoot is when average global warming remains above the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C target for several years or decades before falling again.

This is different from one unusually hot year.

How high temperatures rise and how long they stay above 1.5°C will depend on how quickly the world cuts greenhouse-gas emissions and removes carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.

Read more: A landmark UN report says the world will overshoot the 1.5°C climate target.

What happens now? The United Nations’ report warns that long-term global warming is likely to exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels within the next few years.

Even its most hopeful scenario sees temperatures peak at about 1.8°C, while others take the world beyond 2°C.

As a scientist who studies climate extremes and health, I find these projections deeply troubling.

African countries contributed relatively little to the greenhouse gases warming the planet, yet face some of the gravest consequences.

Cities, informal settlements, farming communities and outdoor workers will be especially vulnerable where reliable water, electricity, cooling and healthcare are limited.

Read more: Even temporary global warming above 2°C will affect life in the oceans for centuries Just because the world is shooting past the 1.5°C target does not mean climate action should be abandoned.

Decisions made now will determine how high temperatures rise, how long they remain above 1.5°C and whether they can eventually be brought down.