Democrats’ chances of gaining control of Congress at US midterms depend on Iran war

In Nate Silver’s forecast model, Democrats are more likely than not to gain control of the US federal Senate at November 3 midterm elections, and strongly favoured to gain control of the House of Representatives.

Donald Trump’s net approval is close to -20.

If disruption caused by the Iran war continues until the midterm elections, with increased petrol prices and inflation, Republicans are likely to lose control of both the House and the Senate, possibly with huge losses.

However, if the disruption eases again and petrol prices fall back, I believe Republicans will do better than they are now and would be favourites to retain control of the Senate.

I can say this because Trump’s net approval and the generic ballot were better for Republicans in early September, before the current fighting began.

Trump’s ratings In analyst Nate Silver’s aggregate of US national polls, Trump’s net approval is -19.7.

Currently, 58.2% disapprove of his performance and 38.5% approve.

Trump’s net approval was -20.4 in my August 12 article .

It had improved to -18.7 on September 4 before falling back.

Trump’s net approval is below what any past president since Harry Truman had at this point in their term, with Trump’s first term the closest at -13.1.

On four issues tracked by Silver, Trump’s net approval is -12.2 on immigration, -26.1 on trade, -30.8 on the economy and -46.4 on inflation.

Since my August 12 article, Trump’s net approval on trade and inflation have dropped 2–4 points, while his net approval on immigration has been relatively stable.

His ratings on the economy had improved before another slump.

Silver also has an aggregate of US support for the Iran war .