From east to west: Why Turkey is playing both sides

Less than two months after his government hosted the NATO summit — which was framed as proof of Turkey’s pivotal role in transatlantic security — President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has proposed full Turkish membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation , an entity that has been described as being anti-NATO or a “rogue NATO .” The apparent contradiction was striking.

Turkey has belonged to NATO since 1952 and remains a European Union candidate.

In contrast, the China- and Russia-led Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, which has included Iran since 2023, projects an alternative, non-western vision of international order .

This revives a familiar question: is Turkey pivoting from west to east? The question assumes a world divided into coherent blocs.

In reality, partially overlapping and competing international orders co-exist, each with its own institutions, rules and visions of global authority.

Turkey is simply asserting its autonomy by moving across their boundaries.

A world of overlapping orders The post-Cold War vision of a single global order centred on western institutions is increasingly difficult to sustain.

NATO co-exists with emerging power coalitions and regional or issue-specific partnerships.

These orders overlap but are not easily reconciled.

Their rules and political visions often conflict, allowing emerging and existing middle powers to participate in several of them without fully accepting the authority of any.

While remaining embedded in NATO and economically connected to Europe, Turkey has cultivated deeper ties with Russia and China .

A dialogue partner in the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation since 2012 , Turkey has also sought a larger role across the Middle East, Africa, the Caucasus and Central Asia.

This can appear inconsistent or merely tactical.

But, as I argue in my new book Turkey, Geopolitics, and the Age of Populist World-Making , the country’s stance reflects a broader objective.