Kharif crops' productivity at risk as monsoon trough shifts, widespread regional variations

After pulling India back from a near 40% rainfall deficit at the end of June, the southwest monsoon is losing momentum again. The all-India rainfall deficit remained stuck at 12% as of August 13 despite widespread showers in the first half of August, and forecasts suggest rainfall could weaken further through the month.

Soybean, maize, paddy and other kharif crops are now entering the growth stages that determine final yields, and experts say the next fortnight could decide whether the uneven monsoon dents productivity.

The sowing season has virtually ended. Agriculture ministry data show kharif crops were sown over an area about 2% lower than a year earlier as of August 14 — rice acreage down 3.7%, tur and maize by 4% each, cotton by 1% and sugarcane by 0.5%. With little room left for additional planting, this year’s harvest will depend on yields, and on whether crops get adequate moisture through August and September.

The national rainfall deficit has barely moved in a fortnight — from 13% below the long period average (LPA) on July 31 to 12% by August 13 — even as many parts of the country received regular showers this month.

In its July 31 long-range forecast, the IMD had projected below-normal rainfall for both August and September, estimating August rainfall at 94% of its long period average of 254.9 mm, with the first half of the month broadly normal before activity weakened later. Its August 13 extended-range forecast reinforces that outlook: near-normal rainfall from August 13-19, turning normal to below normal during August 20-26 as the monsoon trough shifts north again.

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Mahesh Palawat, vice president at Skymet Weather, said the first half of August has prevented the rainfall deficit from worsening but has not delivered the widespread soaking rainfall needed to significantly improve the seasonal balance. “We expected some recovery during the first half of August, but substantial rainfall has been missing. Daily rainfall has remained close to the daily long period average… We now expect this to increase slightly after August 15 as the monsoon trough shifts towards the Himalayan foothills...,” he told HT.

As of August 13, central India had almost erased its rainfall deficit, at just 1% below normal. Northwest India remained 11% below normal and the south peninsula 20% below average. East and northeast India saw the sharpest shortfall, still 27% below the long period average. Several agricultural states lag well behind normal: Bihar is down 39%, East Uttar Pradesh and Punjab 31% each, Jharkhand 25%, and the Haryana-Chandigarh-Delhi subdivision and West Uttar Pradesh around 11%.