Volatile electorate delivers mixed results for all parties in latest polls

In the two latest new federal polls, Morgan was good for Labor but Essential was bad.

There were four federal polls taken last week, largely before the Western Australian Secret Harbour byelection .

The total vote for One Nation and the Coalition was 44% in Morgan (down four), 49% in Newspoll (up two), 49% in Essential (up two) and 50% in Redbridge (down three).

The previous Redbridge was probably an outlier, so currently only Morgan doesn’t suggest the right is trending higher.

A NSW DemosAU state poll still has Labor in a dominant position, due to the split right vote and NSW’s optional preferential system.

In Canada, the centre-left governing Liberals easily won all three of Monday’s byelections (two holds and one gain from the Conservatives).

US president Donald Trump has helped the Canadian Liberals remain dominant.

Essential poll A national Essential poll , conducted August 26–30 from a sample of 1,017, gave Labor 26% of the primary vote (down five since the late July Essential poll), the Coalition 26% (up four), One Nation 23% (down two), the Greens 13% (up one), all Others 6% (steady) and undecided 5% (up one).

By respondent preferences, the Coalition led Labor by 50–45, reversing a 48–47 Labor lead in July.

This is the Coalition’s biggest lead in an Essential poll since March 2024, and their biggest lead from any pollster this term.

Applying 2025 election preference flows to the primaries would put the Coalition just ahead by about 50.5–49.5.

Weak respondent flows to Labor and a low Others vote are features of Essential’s polls.

Anthony Albanese’s net approval slumped seven points to -21 (56% disapprove, 35% approve).

This is a record low for him in this poll.